In this paper, I examine the causal effect of GVC participation on export quality upgrading, explore the heterogeneous impact among countries and industries, and construct a country-industry upstreamness measure to examine the various effects along the positions of the value chains. I find consistent evidence that increasing GVC participation has a positive and statistically significant effect on export quality. An increase in domestic value-added embodied in foreign exports as a share of domestic gross exports (forward GVC participation) has a pronounced and robust effect on export quality upgrading. However, the effect of foreign value-added in an industry’s exports as a share of gross exports (backward GVC participation) is largely muted. The impact of increasing forward GVC participation on export quality is positive and significant among both advanced and developing countries, countries which have transitioned to a higher income status, and East Asia and Pacific countries. In terms of sectoral heterogeneities, three patterns can be observed. First, the impact is predominantly driven by manufacturing sectors. Second, increasing GVC participation in sectors with lower research and development (R&D) intensities is associated with a decrease in sectoral export quality. Third, an increasing share of sectoral differentiated products is a positive and significant contributor of export quality upgrading. Lastly, by analyzing the positions of the value chains, I find that country-industry pairs in extremely upstream positions can improve export quality by increasing backward GVC participation, while those that are closer to final uses can benefit from strengthening forward GVC participation.

Economic complexity is defined as the capability of countries to export diversified and sophisticated products. Empirical research suggests that higher income countries tend to export more diversified and complex products; therefore, economic complexity of exported goods is seen as a proxy for economic growth. Our paper shows stylized facts of export trade patterns and economic complexity in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region over the last three decades. The SSA region witnesses an increase in economic complexity between mid-1990s and late-2000s, followed by a complete reversal towards the end of 2020. Meanwhile, the region sees an upward trend in export values across product groupings during the same period, including manufacturing and agricultural goods. Utilizing panel regressions and dynamic panel data estimators with data from 28 SSA countries, we examine the role of exports and other potential determinants on the region’s economic complexity from 1995 to 2020. Our analyses distinguish the effects by product grouping and partner countries’ income level. Our regression results highlight the heterogeneous effects of export products on SSA’s economic complexity. In sum, increases in the shares of agricultural and manufacturing products in total exports are associated with a rise in economic complexity, while increases in the shares of fuels exports are associated with a decrease in economic complexity. In addition, increases in intra-region export shares are found to improve economic complexity. (Work-in-progress)

This paper analyzes the role of U.S. consumers’ preferences, along with other potential determinants indicated by international trade theories, on citizens’ trade policy views in 2016. Specifically, it examines the association between U.S. individual- and household-level consumption and citizens’ perception of trade policy, in particular, whether additional import restrictions should be placed by the United States on foreign products. I hypothesize that individuals whose consumption bundles largely consist of globally-imported goods are less likely to favor additional import restrictions. A binary response model is used to estimate the marginal effect of each potential factor associated with trade policy views. My empirical findings suggest that a higher expenditure-weighted import penetration ratio and a higher expenditure-weighted applied tariff rate are both associated with a lower likelihood of support for additional import restrictions.